When you are setting up your Demand Model, you can choose to create a model based on ‘Manual Input’ or ‘Predicted by Realize’. If you select ‘Predicted by Realize’, an Adoption Rate Slider will appear.
The Adoption Rate describes the proportion of all trips in this Demand Segment that are taken using on-demand, once a service is introduced. The Adoption Rate directly controls how many trips are assigned to different ‘Trip Types’ in the table below the slider.
The Adoption Rate is affected by the availability of other transportation options, local attitudes to public transportation, and the marketing of the service. Evidence from Spare’s existing services suggests that it sits between 0.1% and 1% of the total population in a given neighbourhood, but it is often difficult to know where exactly to set the rate.
Rather than aiming for a single answer, the reality is that you may want to consider a variety of demand scenarios for your Service. The Adoption Rate slider is a powerful way to test those scenarios: you could set up a Service assuming that only 0.1% of your Demand Segment’s trips were taken using the Service. Then, you could duplicate that Service and evaluate what resources you would need if 10% of the trips were taken this way.
Note that the ‘Microtransit Potential’ and ‘Paratransit Potential’ layers provided by Spare represent our best guess at the total ridership potential in a neighborhood. These layers are generated using a machine learning model trained on Spare’s past data in other parts of the world. If you are relying on the Microtransit Potential or Paratransit Potential layers for your Demand Segments, we recommend setting the Adoption Rate slider close to 100%.
You can click and drag the Adoption Rate slider between 0% and 100%. Note that as you change the Adoption Rate slider, Realize will recalculate the total number of daily trips in each row of the Trip Types table.